纽约时报文摘 | 打击中国还是发展经济,特朗普只能二选一

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LONDON — As President Trump intermittently escalates and moderates his trade war with China, his conflicting signals reflect a reality that limits his actions: He can try to sever the deeply intertwined American commercial relationship with China, or he can prod economic growth to assuage the fears of investors around the planet.
伦敦——特朗普总统对中国的贸易战时而升级,时而缓和,他发出的相互矛盾的信号反映了限制他行动的现实:他可以尝试切断美中之间错综复杂的商业关系,也可以刺激经济增长,缓解全球投资者的担忧。

But he cannot do both at the same time.
但他不能同时做到这两件事。

Mr. Trump need not rely on the testimonials of economists to deduce this. He can disregard the admonitions of news outlets he derides as fake news. He can simply consult the one source whose verdicts he tends to celebrate: the stock market.
特朗普无需经济学家的证明就能推断出这一点。他可以无视被他嘲笑为假新闻的媒体警告,他只需参考一个他信赖的消息来源:股市。

Among those who control money, portents of further trade hostilities between the United States and China, the two largest economies on earth, have proved an impetus to sell with abandon while?amplifying talk of recession. Intimations of a deal avoiding further animosity reverberate as a clarion call to buy, sending share prices higher while easing worries about a potential global economic downturn.
在那些控制货币的人当中,美中这两个世界上最大的经济体之间贸易敌对状态进一步恶化的征兆,已被证明是抛售的动力,同时放大了有关经济衰退的说法。有关达成协议以避免进一步敌意的迹象则是买入的强大动力,在推动股价走高的同时,缓解了对全球经济可能下滑的担忧。

Mr. Trump often appears caught between competing impulses that pull markets — and his China policy — in opposite directions.
特朗普可以将市场(以及他的对华政策)推向两个相反的方向,他似乎经常在这两种互相矛盾的冲动之间左右为难。

Talk of a trade deal with China makes for happy stock markets and retirement account statements that Americans open up to learn that they are, also happily, richer. For a president seeking re-election next year, this option holds appeal.
谈起与中国的贸易协定,就会令股市和退休账户对账单看了让人高兴,美国人会觉得自己幸福而富有。对于明年寻求连任的总统来说,这个选择很有吸引力。

Thunderous threats of fresh tariffs on Chinese goods and the forging of a new order in which American industry forsakes China may damage share prices and shrink economic growth prospects. But it brings plaudits from Mr. Trump’s most ardent political base — nationalists who portray the trade war as a tough but necessary piece of business, the sort of action evaded by the cowards who resided at the White House before.
对中国商品征收新关税的巨大威胁,以及令美国工业形成抛弃中国的新秩序,可能会损害股价,收缩经济增长前景。但也为特朗普带来他最热衷的政治基础——民族主义者的喝彩,他们把贸易战描绘成一项艰难但必要的事业,是以前那些白宫的懦夫们不愿面对的行动。

The latest evidence for this state of affairs came in recent days, as Mr. Trump angrily reacted to China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs of 10 percent on some $75 billion worth of American exports.
最近几天,中国宣布对价值约750亿美元的美国出口商品征收10%的报复性关税,特朗普对此做出了愤怒的回应,这是证明这种状况的最新证据。

On Friday, the president unleashed furious tweets threatening China with pain. He?vowed to raise?tariffs on $550 billion of Chinese goods. He declared that China’s president, Xi Jinping, whom he had previously called a “good man,” was an “enemy.” And he?commanded American companies to abandon China?and start making their products in the United States.
上周五,总统发布了愤怒的推文,威胁给中国带来痛苦。他发誓要对5500亿美元的中国商品提高关税。他宣称以前被他称为“好人”的中国国家主席习近平是“敌人”。他命令美国公司放弃中国,开始在美国生产产品。

That last bit was especially striking given that successive American administrations have criticized Chinese counterparts for using state-owned companies as tools of policy in contravention of market forces. Now, here was the president of the United States, traditional champion of swashbuckling capitalism, ordering American companies to heed his dictates.
鉴于历届美国政府都批评中国政府将国有企业作为违背市场力量的政策工具,上述最后一点尤其引人注目。传统上,美国总统一直是充满传奇色彩的资本主义的拥护者,如今却命令美国公司听从他的指示。

In markets around the globe, investors reacted to these developments as powerful signals to yank their money to safety. They sold stocks and bought bonds. They dumped a vast assortment of currencies and purchased the American dollar, the ultimate haven in moments of worry.
在全球市场上,投资者将事态的发展视为把资金投入安全领域的有力信号。他们卖出股票,买进债券。他们抛售各种各样的货币,购买美元,这是人们担心时的终极避风港。

They reacted, in short, as if much of the globe suddenly appeared riskier.
简而言之,他们的反应就好像全球大部分地区突然出现了风险。

Signs of trouble had already been mounting. For better or worse, the United States and China have been fused for two decades, with their fortunes influencing economic conditions everywhere.
麻烦的迹象已经越来越多。无论好坏,美国和中国已经融合了20年,它们的命运影响着世界各地的经济状况。

China has invested aggressively in manufacturing plants, ports and power systems to become the factory to the world. American consumers are the most significant drivers of economic growth on earth. Together, the United States and China are responsible for about 40 percent of the world’s economic output.
中国在制造业、港口和电力系统方面大举投资,成为世界工厂。美国消费者是全球经济增长最重要的驱动力。美国和中国合计约占世界经济总量的40%。

Any sign of a breakdown in this arrangement — the threat that China will be impeded in selling its goods, or that the American appetite is waning — spreads worry far and wide.
这一安排出现任何破裂的迹象——中国销售商品将受到阻碍,或者美国的胃口正在减弱——都会引起广泛的担忧。

The trade war that has escalated over the last year has already produced distress. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, is?teetering toward recession?in large part because of weakening exports. As China’s economy slows in the face of American tariffs, Chinese factories have less need for goods made in Germany, from machinery to petrochemicals.
去年升级的贸易战已经造成了痛苦。作为欧洲最大的经济体,德国正在蹒跚地走向衰退,这在很大程度上是由于出口疲软。随着中国经济在美国关税的影响下放缓,中国工厂对德国制造(从机械到石化产品)的需求下降了。

German weakness has contributed to a?general sense of malaise in Europe, just as the Continent grapples with the prospect that Britain —?also contracting?— might?crash out of the European Union without a deal?governing future commercial relations.
德国的疲弱在一定程度上加剧了欧洲普遍的不安情绪。与此同时,欧洲大陆也要艰难应对同样经济出现收缩的英国硬脱欧的前景,双方无法就未来的商业关系达成协议。

Across Asia, the drop in trade has sown trouble, with Singapore and Hong Kong now declining and South Korea slowing. Even Vietnam — a country that has received fresh investment as multinational companies seek alternatives to making their wares in China — looks vulnerable if global trade over all continues to diminish.
在亚洲各地,贸易下滑已造成麻烦,新加坡和香港的经济目前正在下滑,韩国的经济也在放缓。即便是越南——随着跨国公司寻求在中国生产产品的替代方案,越南获得了新的投资——如果全球贸易整体继续萎缩,这个国家似乎也很脆弱。

As far away as Brazil and Argentina, the impacts of a slower-growing China are being felt by soybean farmers who ship their harvest to Chinese ports to feed livestock.
远在巴西和阿根廷,大豆种植者也在感受到中国经济增长放缓的影响。他们生产的大豆将被运往中国喂养牲畜。

“For the rest of the world, there are many other countries that are innocent bystanders that will actually suffer even more than the United States and China,” said Louis Kuijs, the Hong Kong-based head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics. “There is not going to be any de-escalation any time soon.”
“对于世界其他地区来说,许多国家都是无辜的旁观者,它们遭受的损失将超过美国和中国,”常驻香港的牛津经济咨询社(Oxford Economics)亚洲经济主管高路易(Louis Kuijs)说。“短期内不会出现缓和。”

Beijing and Washington have argued over this state of affairs for decades, while American labor interests and industry groups have demanded redress.
几十年来,北京和华盛顿一直在为这种状况争论不休,而美国的劳工利益集团和行业团体则要求纠正。

But Mr. Trump has gone much further than his predecessors in his diagnosis. In his telling — at least, in his combative moments — China is a rogue operator that fleeces Americans. The solution is not another slow-moving case at the World Trade Organization, but a fundamental redrawing of commercial geography. American companies must vacate China, walking away from customers and supply chains. In his view, the American economy is supposed to “decouple” from China, as the think tank vernacular has it.
但在判断上,特朗普比他的前任走得更远。在他的讲述中——至少在他好斗的时候——中国是一个占美国人便宜的流氓操纵者。他的对策不是把问题提到世贸组织,久久得不到解决,而是对商业地理从根本上重新划分。美国企业必须离开中国,离开客户和供应链。在他看来,美国经济应该——用智库的说法——与中国“脱钩”。

Mr. Trump’s tweet storm on Friday morning appeared to underscore that he was serious, that he was truly willing to see Americans accept the costs — plunging stock markets, weakening investment — for a wholly new sort of relationship with China as adversary.
特朗普周五上午的推文风暴似乎是为了强调他的态度是认真的,他真的准备好了让美国人接受与中国建立全新敌对关系的代价——股市暴跌、投资不振。

Stock markets suffered a sell-off because a dissolution of American and Chinese commercial arrangements was certain to be disruptive. Companies with global operations would have to scramble to figure out where they would buy parts and raw materials. The potential outcomes were many, but none of them involved the world’s getting richer.
由于美中商业约定的瓦解肯定是破坏性的,股市一片大跌。拥有全球业务的企业必须赶紧找到哪里可以买到零件和原材料。由此造成的结果各式各样,但没有一个会让世界更富裕。

Yet by Sunday morning, at the Group of 7 summit in France, Mr. Trump was expressing “second thoughts” about the new tariffs on Chinese goods. By Monday morning, he was calling Mr. Xi a “great leader” and reporting that China was interested in resuming trade talks. Stock markets were buoyant. At least for a few hours, the bewildering notion that the United States and China were dissolving ties could be forgotten.
然而,到了周日上午,在法国举行的七国集团峰会上,特朗普说他“重新考虑”了对中国商品征收的新关税。到周一上午,他称习近平是“伟大的领导人”,报道称,中国有意恢复贸易谈判。股市上涨。至少在几个小时内,美中正在闹翻这一令人不解的想法,可以先放到一边了。

But for how long? And what is the end game?
但这能持续多久?终局会是什么样?

For as long as Mr. Trump has occupied the Oval Office, trade experts have parsed his often contradictory words and actions for clues to his real policy aims and beliefs. They have labored to divine what he values, and somehow separate it from what he may say as a negotiating ploy or as a diversion from scandal.
自从特朗普入主白宫以来,贸易专家就一直在分析他往往自相矛盾的言论和行动,寻找线索,确定他真正的政策目标和观念。他们极力猜测他究竟看重什么,并设法把他所说的谈判策略和让人从丑闻中转移视线的手段区分开来。

Trump is famously adept at maintaining positions that seem mutually exclusive. In recent weeks, he has touted the awesome strength of the American economy while?excoriating the Federal Reserve chair?for imperiling the economy by not aggressively lowering interest rates. He has?flirted with tax breaks?to juice the economy further.
众所周知,特朗普擅长持有看似相互排斥的立场。最近几周,他一边吹嘘美国经济很强大,一边严厉批评美联储主席没有大幅降息,给美国经济带来危害。为了进一步刺激经济,他还一直在考虑减税的可能性。

But the trade war threatens to force Mr. Trump to choose between it and economic growth.
但贸易战本身可能迫使特朗普必须在贸易战和经济增长之间做出选择。

In Beijing and Washington alike, hard-liners have dug in, shrinking room for a compromise. In both capitals, a sense of permanent alteration has transpired, a deepening assumption that — whatever comes next — China and the United States will proceed with profound wariness.
无论是在北京还是华盛顿,强硬派都严阵以待,不断缩小妥协的空间。在两国首都,已经出现了一种发生永久性变化的感觉,这是一种不断扎下根来的假设——无论接下来会发生什么——中美两国都将对彼此保持高度戒心。

For the global economy, that could entail grave uncertainties and perils.
对于全球经济而言,这可能带来严重的不确定性和危险。

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